Eurizon Weekly 22.04.24. The risk of a potential escalation in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, in the US in particular, translated into a rather volatile week on all the major markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 15 Apr. 2024. US inflation rose and beat expectations on the upside for the third month in a row, and combined with the risk of the crisis in the Middle East spreading, with the direct involvement of Iran, fuelled uncertainty among investors. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 April 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 8 April. 2024. In the course of the week, the mix of US macro data and statements made by Fed officials generated renewed uncertainty over the policy rate reduction path. This translated into a marginal rise of government bond yields, while the major stock indices consolidated at their previous levels. Focus will mostly stay on the US market and on the Fed. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.Audio recorded on 8 April, 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact. Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 25 Mar. 2024. The much-anticipated FOMC meeting was last week’s main event. The US central bank Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, and raised both its growth and inflation forecasts. During the meeting, the Fed reasserted its intention to implement three rate cuts in 2024, thus confirming the announcement made in December and removing concerns of a potential reduction to two moves: the message was swiftly priced in by the stock markets, that performed well in the week. Bonds also performed well, on the shorter end of the curve in particular. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 25 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 15 Mar. 2024. Last week, investor focus was on data on the evolution of prices in the US, the downtrend of which seems to have slowed. Market operator caution prevailed, waiting on the Fed meeting this week to provide greater details on its future monetary policy choices. Expectations for the start and the scope of the interest rate cut cycle are still the main determinant factor of volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 11 Mar. 2024. The markets enjoyed a positive week thanks to the ECB meeting, that confirmed investor expectations, and US labour market data, that while mixed overall, confirmed that the US economy is not overheating at the moment. However, while the markets scored gains, they generally remained rather cautious in waiting on the US inflation reading. Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports Audio recorded on 11 Mar. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 4 Mar. 2024.Another positive week, with investors slightly more cautious, in light of the trend of US inflation and ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. The markets are pricing in on the one hand some uncertainty over the timeline of the convergence of inflation back to target, and on the other macro data that confirm the resilience of the overall picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 4 Mar. 2024

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 19Feb. 2024. In the course of the week, both consumer and producer prices rose back on a monthly basis in the US, casting some doubts on the timeline of inflation’s return to target and, as a result, on expectations for the Fed’s future decisions on the announced monetary easing process. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 Feb. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 12 Feb. 2024. The marginal repricing of monetary policy expectations by the sovereign yields market continued, progressively cutting back on the excesses recorded over the closing months of 2023. The global stock markets were cautious, whereas the US stock lists stayed on an uptrend, supported by quarterly corporate results, in waiting for the US inflation reading to provide clearer indications on the timing of the start of the interest rate normalisation process by the central banks. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 Feb. 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 29 Jan. 2024. Last week the US economy again confirmed its strength, and combined with the growth-supportive measures put in place by the Chinese authorities and the ECB’s more accommodative than expected statements, boosted stock indices. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 Jan. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 22 Jan. 2024. Stock markets more cautious, on the decline of short-term US yields and ahead of the earnings season reaching its height. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Jan. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly 15 Jan. 2024. After a cautious start to the year, marked by widespread profit-taking following the sharp recovery scored at the end of 2023, last week investors started to take a bolder approach. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 15 Jan. 2024.

Eurizon Weekly, 8 Jan. 2024. In the opening week of 2024, the markets remained cautious in the wake of the strong recovery recorded in the final weeks of 2023. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 8 Jan. 2024.

Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for the coming month in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.

Eurizon Weekly 18 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the mix of US inflation, confirmed on a downtrend, and of the central bank meetings, with the spotlight on the Fed, essentially confirmed that further rate hikes are not on the cards, and in fact rate cuts in 2024 are starting to be considered. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer lookAudio recorded on 18 Dec 2023

Eurizon Weekly 11 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the European markets benefited from the accommodative tones on the future path of interest rates used by some ECB Governing Council members. In the US, spotlight back on the Fed’s next decisions and on forthcoming US inflation data. Stefano Cucchi of the Euruzone Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Dec. 2023.

Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets.Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023